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IN a dramatic development, Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to upgrade their diplomatic relations to ambassador level, signalling a major shift in bilateral ties that had become extremely tense since the return of Afghan Taliban rule. The announcement followed an informal trilateral meeting of foreign ministers of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan in Beijing last month. The surprise move is viewed as highly significant in the rapidly evolving regional geopolitics.
Just a handful of other countries — China, Russia, the UAE and Uzbekistan — have agreed to host ambassadors representing the Taliban government since it retook power in 2021. Pakistan had previously maintained a consulate-level presence in Kabul. However, no country has as yet formally recognised the Taliban administration. One of the primary reasons for this is the Taliban’s policy of barring women from exercising their right to education and work. Given the domination of hardliners in the leadership council, it is difficult to expect the Taliban regime to moderate its conservative policy.
Curiously, the Pak-Afghan breakthrough followed a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan that had threatened to push the region into a wider state of conflict. At the time, Kabul had been warming up to New Delhi. Perhaps that may be part of the reason why many analysts, particularly in the Indian media, perceived the Taliban administration as tilting towards New Delhi in the conflict.
But the Beijing meeting marked a shift. While the role of China in mending matters between the two neighbours, Pakistan and Afghanistan, is obvious, there was also diplomatic sensitivity from both sides that helped thaw the ice. The decision to elevate diplomatic relations is indeed a positive move. It paves the way for enhanced bilateral cooperation in various fields.
The decision to elevate diplomatic relations is indeed a positive move.
“I am confident this step will further contribute towards enhanced engagement, deepen Pak-Afghan cooperation in economic, security, CT [counterterrorism] and trade areas and promote further exchanges between two fraternal countries,” Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said on social media. But there are still some major snags that make it extremely hard for the two countries to bury the hatchet.
Except for the first few months of Taliban 2.0 rule, relations between the two countries have been on a downward slide. In recent times, ties had turned hostile, with an increasing incidence of border clashes and the closure of trade. But the most incendiary issue is the use of Afghan territory by militants waging a war against the Pakistani state. In most of the cases, the militant networks, mainly the banned TTP, have been operating with the tacit backing of Afghan Taliban commanders.
There has been a dramatic increase in terrorist attacks by the TTP since the Taliban returned to power. The militants are now much better equipped and trained. They are armed with sophisticated weapons left behind by the American and Nato forces after their withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. But it’s not correct to put the entire blame on Kabul for the TTP’s resurgence and the spiralling terrorist attacks against Pakistan.
Our policy of capitulation has primarily been responsible for the resurgence of the TTP. Previously, the state, on the insistence of the Afghan Taliban administration, not only tried to negotiate peace with some of the outlawed militant factions but also allowed thousands of heavily armed fighters to return home. There is no doubt that militants are also getting support from across the border. However, the fault lies in our flawed and incoherent strategy for dealing with the rising menace of militancy as well.
Pakistan has also bombed alleged militant hideouts inside Afghanistan. However, these desperate actions have yielded questionable results, with cross-border actions exacerbating tensions as the government in Kabul has hardened its position.
Pakistan has also accused Afghan nationals of being involved in some of the terrorist attacks on its soil — allegations that Kabul has denied. In retaliation, Islamabad has expelled hundreds of thousands of illegal and even documented Afghans, some of whom were born and lived in this country for decades. Since October 2023, approximately 845,000 Afghans have left Pakistan, with around three million remaining. Pakistan plans to deport them this year. It has been a senseless move by Islamabad that has only added to tensions with Kabul.
Moreover, the frequent closure of the border has also fuelled Afghan anger against Pakistan and disrupted trade between the two countries. In this situation, India has moved to normalise its ties with the Taliban regime. Earlier this year, the Indian foreign secretary met the Afghan foreign minister in Dubai. India’s diplomatic outreach marked a major shift in its policy towards the conservative Taliban regime.
According to some analysts, the engagement between Kabul and New Delhi at a senior official level gave de facto legitimacy to the Taliban regime. The Taliban government indicated that it wanted to boost political and economic ties with India and called the latter country a “significant regional and economic power”. In fact, Kabul’s strong condemnation of the Pahalgam terrorist attack in occupied Kashmir was wrongly interpreted as support for Indian military action against Pakistan.
This development raised concern in Beijing and Islamabad. China has developed far closer ties with the Taliban regime than any other country. It was the first country to elevate its diplomatic relations with Afghanistan to an ambassadorial level. More importantly, Beijing has a strong influence on both Kabul and Islamabad, which has helped it play the role of mediator.
There was no known scheduled trilateral meeting when Pakistan’s foreign minister arrived in Beijing on an official visit. The Afghan foreign minister went to Beijing on a special invitation. However, the get-together produced a positive outcome of geopolitical importance. Surely, there is a need to keep up the pressure on Kabul not to let its soil be used for cross-border terrorist attacks against Pakistan. Still, Islamabad must also broaden its multi-dimensional cooperation with the Kabul regime.
The writer is an author and journalist.
X: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, June 11th, 2025
